Chances for Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval this year at 75%, Approval Odds at 95% next year

Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, following a recent Grayscale victory against the federal securities regulator.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said they have raised the chances to 75% from an earlier 65% — due to the unanimity and decisiveness at which the United States Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in the recent case.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added in a separate Aug. 30 note that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the approval odds to have now skyrocketed to 95% by then.

Balchunas added that given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC will be “politically untennable.”

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Source

Bitcoin Policy and Regulation